MPs scramble as new electorate boundaries change political landscape

Extract from The Guardian

Some are considering changing seats, others might change parties after the Electoral Commission removed a seat from NSW and changed boundaries.

Daniel Hurst Political correspondent

@danielhurstbne

Friday 15 January 2016 18.52 AEDT

The Liberal MP Angus Taylor has played down the prospect of defecting to the Nationals, amid manoeuvring and number-crunching by all political parties after new political boundaries changed the electoral landscape across New South Wales.

Labor’s shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, has ruled out moving seats but frontbench colleague Anthony Albanese is considering his options and Joel Fitzgibbon is negotiating with MPs from neighbouring electorates after his constituency was radically redrawn.

The Australian Electoral Commission published new boundaries for NSW seats on Thursday, a move that has implications for any federal election called after they are gazetted in late February.

Overall, there will be one fewer seat in New South Wales because Western Australia is gaining an electorate to reflect population trends.

Figures published by the ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, suggest the number of notionally Coalition seats in NSW will decline from 30 to 27 after the boundaries take effect, a development that is causing nervousness in Liberal ranks. The number of notionally Labor seats will increase from 18 to 20.

Some MPs are likely to seek to change seats, either because they view their electoral prospects as being better in a neighbouring electorate or due to abolition.

Taylor retains a large margin in his regional NSW seat of Hume but faces a possible preselection challenge from the Liberal member for Macarthur, Russell Matheson.

In an apparent bid to head off the challenge, supporters of Taylor told the Australian newspaper he might defect to the Nationals to recontest Hume if Matheson won Liberal preselection in the seat. Ian Macfarlane’s attempted defection to the Nationals in Queensland ended in chaos last month when the state executive blocked the move.

Taylor appeared to play down the defection talk on Friday by emphasising his plans to nominate for the Liberals.

“Given that the new boundaries have been finalised, I am now in a position to confirm that I will nominate for Liberal party preselection for the seat of Hume,” he said.

The deputy Liberal leader, Julie Bishop, underlined the need for unity for the sake of the Coalition’s electoral prospects.

“I’m confident that our Liberal party will work in cooperation with the National party in NSW to make sure that we have the best candidates in seats and are able to present to the people of NSW a credible policy position for the next election,” she told Sky News.

The most pressing challenge for the Labor side of politics is how to deal with the changes to the seat of Hunter, currently held by Fitzgibbon, who is the party’s agriculture spokesman and a right faction figure.

The Labor seat of Charlton, which the Labor left MP Pat Conroy holds on a margin of 9.2%, is set to be abolished. Hunter will live on in name, with Labor’s notional margin increasing from 3.7% to 6.2%, but most of the voters in the redrawn seat will come from the old electorate of Charlton.

Guardian Australia understands the expectation is there will be a negotiated solution in relation to the future of Labor MPs in the region. This was reflected in a comment by the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, that he did not think Fitzgibbon would be forced out of parliament.

“Joel’s got my support and he’s a good operator,” Shorten said on Friday. “He’s got a lot more to give.”

Other seats in the region include Newcastle, for which the incumbent MP Sharon Claydon was recently preselected, and Shortland, which gains part of Conroy’s old seat and is held by the long-serving MP Jill Hall. They both remain safe Labor electorates but Hall, from the left, could face pressure to bow out of politics.

The Liberal-held seat of Paterson, which becomes a notionally Labor marginal electorate, is another option in the region in contention for talks within the party. It is currently held by Bob Baldwin, who was dumped from his parliamentary secretary position in Malcolm Turnbull’s September reshuffle.

Meanwhile, in Sydney, Albanese is yet to decide whether he will seek to move from his seat of Grayndler to neighbouring Barton, both of which are experiencing boundary changes.

Albanese, Shorten’s rival in the 2013 leadership battle, was considering his options because of the growing threat from the Greens in his inner-city seat and because the draft new boundaries would have moved his electorate office and his home into Barton. But the final version of the boundaries has scaled back the extent of changes, with his office now staying inside Grayndler.

Labor’s margin in Grayndler was projected to fall from 20.3% to 14% in the draft boundaries, but the final decision resulted in a notional margin of 18.1%, according analysis posted by Green on his ABC blog.

Barton, currently held by the Liberal MP Nickolas Varvaris with a narrow 0.3% margin, is set to become a notionally Labor seat with a 5.4% margin.

Shorten said Albanese would make a decision on his return from a holiday in Italy. “I’m very supportive of whatever decision he makes,” the Labor leader said.

Bowen ruled out moving to a neighbouring seat, easing pressure on his colleague in Fowler, Chris Hayes, who was reportedly sounded out.

“I am delighted that the electoral commission has accepted the ALP’s submission that Fairfield and Smithfield should be retained in the seat of McMahon,” Bowen said on Friday.

“I will be nominating to be the Labor candidate for the seat of McMahon at the upcoming election.”