Sunday 18 October 2015

Labor is dazzled by Malcolm Turnbull's ascension but it must find clarity


The Turnbull ministry got its first chance to sit on the frontbenches in question time this week, and sitting is pretty much all they did. There’s only one star, it seems, in the Turnbull government, and his name is Malcolm.
Turnbull showed his full repertoire: witty, contemplative, acerbic, sombre, thoughtful, assertive, and combative. His performance left no doubt as to his command of facts, his mastery of language and his ability to turn an opposition attack into an opportunity.
Turnbull oozes confidence. Why not? He strode into parliament on Monday with an amazing 38-point lead as preferred prime minister and secure in the knowledge that a majority of Liberal voters back his decision to take out the prime minister they’d elected just two years ago.
Other ministers fared less well. Treasurer Scott Morrison looked a little shaky on his feet in question time. He performed no better in the press when criticising Westpac for raising interest rates on mortgages by 0.20 percentage points. Weirdly, Morrison conceded that half to three-quarters of Westpac’s rate rise was in fact justified in order to meet new requirements, thus giving the other major banks and lenders cover to raise their rates by 0.10 to 0.15 percentage points.
Surely the most basic requirement for a treasurer who decides to get stuck into a bank for raising interest rates is to avoid giving all the other banks the excuse they need to do the same.
Like eyes adjusting to bright light, the opposition seems to be momentarily blinded by Turnbull’s ascension, especially when the first Newspoll after the Sun King’s arrival showed the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote move ahead of the ALP.
Bill Shorten and the opposition responded by focusing on ideas, announcing a new innovative policy to finance infrastructure. Government ministers seemed caught off guard by the policy, momentarily forgetting their new leader’s edict that “everything is on the table” and reverting to the more familiar knee-jerk Abbott response that “everything Labor proposes should be kicked off the table”.
Next came Labor’s detailed, substantive and reasonable response to the China-Australia free trade agreement, this time received by the trade minister, Andrew Robb, with a spirit of respectful cooperation.
Labor also reshuffled its frontbench, bringing into shadow cabinet good talent in the form of Michelle Rowland, Katy Gallagher, and Jim Chalmers.
Then Labor followed through with a targeted attack in question time on Malcolm Turnbull’s personal investments in funds based in the Cayman Islands, a place described by the Australian tax commissioner, Chris Jordan, as a “tax haven”.
“Politics of envy!” cried Liberal MPs in response, as if cutting penalty rates and pensions while preserving tax breaks for high income superannuants isn’t class warfare.
“Super funds invest in companies listed in the Cayman Islands!” they cried. Yes, they do. No one said Turnbull’s investments are illegal, no one claimed that he didn’t pay his taxes on the income such investments derive. But it is entirely legitimate for the opposition to ask about the tax-minimising investment decisions of a prime minister whose government is doing very little about multinational tax avoidance and taxation disclosure rules.
Labor was right to focus on Turnbull’s investments but wrong to allow the attack to get muddled. Labor failed to directly and constantly link questions about Turnbull’s investments to his government’s policy and legislative agenda. Instead, Labor overlaid its policy attack with references to Turnbull’s wealth, allowing government members to argue Labor was criticising the prime minister because he was rich and allowing the prime minister to cast himself as an unlikely martyr.
This mistake – get a good idea, then load it up with too many messages and watch it sink without a trace – risks emerging as a pattern for the opposition. Take the infrastructure funding announcement. It is clever policy: figuring out how to unlock superannuation funds for infrastructure projects that can generate a return, and using proven model to do it. But that message was obscured by competing messages, including an attack on Turnbull for not investing in public transport. The genius of the policy was lost in the pettiness of the politics.
In the case of the Cayman Islands questions, Labor probably took a bit of skin off Turnbull as most people outside the beltway heard “Turnbull, Cayman Islands, tax haven” and not much else. On some voters that will leave a negative impression of a rich guy out of touch with the lives of ordinary Australians. But Labor paid a high price for that minor gain. Distracted by their attack on Turnbull’s wealth, the opposition wasn’t even present in the Senate on Thursday to oppose legislation – shielding private companies from tax disclosure laws – that would have reinforced the point of the Cayman Islands questions. The legislation sailed through on the voices.
The good news for the opposition this week is that latest Newspoll showed Labor and the Coalition neck and neck on the two party preferred vote. Turnbull’s shining star hasn’t pulled his party out of the shade yet. If Labor can adjust its vision quickly, clarity of message and strength of ideas may yet allow the party to see clear its way to victory.

No comments:

Post a Comment