Extract from ABC News
Updated about 5 hours ago
Carbon-cutting pledges from 146 nations for a
universal rescue pact leave the "door open" to capping
global warming below the danger threshold, the United Nations says, a
month ahead of crunch talks in Paris.
Key points:
- UN says climate plans from 146 nations have potential to keep global temperature rise under 2 degrees Celsius
- But "greater emissions reductions efforts" needed to meet 2100 goal
- Finding comes one month before Paris climate talks
But the UN's Climate Change Secretariat warned
that even if the plans are fulfilled, humanity will have used up
three-quarters of its carbon "budget" by 2030 and must
slash greenhouse gas output even more to avoid devastating climate
impacts.
"An unprecedented worldwide effort is under
way to combat climate change, building confidence that nations can
cost-effectively meet their stated objective of keeping a global
temperature rise to under 2 degrees Celsius," it said in an
assessment of the country pledges.
"The national contributions are a game
changer, and distance us from the worst," said French foreign
minister Laurent Fabius, who will host the year-end climate talks.
At the same time, "much greater emissions
reductions efforts ... will be required" to meet the two degrees
Celsius target endorsed by the UN 195-nation climate body, it said.
The Secretariat's 66-page review comes exactly one
month before the November 30 to December 11 talks in the French
capital tasked with finalising a historic global pact.
Prince Charles, who has long argued that profound
changes are needed to change the planet, has announced he will attend
the Paris talks to urge leaders to send an unequivocal message to the
world on climate change.
"Paris will be an absolutely crucial
milestone ... in the long overdue international effort to keep to a
two-degree world," he said.
"The two-degree world is therefore still just
— if we stretch every sinew by setting a proper price for carbon —
within reach."
Slowing emissions would still rise
As they stand, the pledges place the world on
track for warming of some 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100 — "by no
means enough, but a lot lower than the estimated four, five or more
degrees of warming" that would have otherwise taken place, said
UN climate chief Christiana Figueres.
If countries commit in Paris to periodically
revising ambition upward, the goal stays within reach, she added.
The so-called Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDCs), will be a pillar of the Paris pact, which
would be the first to bind all the world's nations in a single action
plan.
The UN reviewed the 146 INDCs submitted by October
1, including all developed nations and three-quarters of developing
ones.
Collectively, they cover 86 per cent of the
world's greenhouse gas emissions.
Many of the pledges from developing countries are
contingent on receiving financial support for cutting emissions and
adapting to climate impacts — drought, sea level rise, flooding —
already in the pipeline.
Taken together, the carbon reduction schemes would
cause average per capita emissions to decline by up to 9 per cent
over the next 15 years.
If commitments are met, combined annual emissions
in 2025 will be about 55.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide
equivalent (GtCO2e) — a measure used to group different greenhouse
gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide — compared
to some 50 GtCO2e today.
By 2030, the figure will be 56.7 GtCO2e, showing
that global emissions — while slowing — would still be on an
upward trajectory.
'From catastrophe to disaster'
The UN Environment Programme has previously
estimated that emissions must fall to about 32-44 GtCO2e by 2030 if
we are to have a better-than-even chance at hitting the 2 degrees
Celsius goal.
"As the report makes clear, to stay below 2
degrees — much less the 1.5 degrees that many countries are calling
for — the Paris agreement must have meaningful provisions designed
to quickly ramp up the level of ambition," said Alden Meyer, a
climate analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
To stay under the 2 degrees Celsius threshold
scientists estimate that humanity has a total CO2 budget of about
1,000 gigatonnes.
Taking the INDCs into account, that allowance
would be 54 per cent spent by 2025, and 75 per cent by 2030, the
report said.
Even if parties do not ramp up their pledges until
as late as 2030, the possibility of a 2 degrees Celsius limit "still
remains," said the report.
However, "this could be achieved only at
substantially higher annual emission reduction rates and cost,"
compared to action now.
Analysts have noted that many INDC pledges are
probably conservative, leaving room for greater ambition.
"It's very likely that China, for example,
can and will move faster than it has offered," said Martin
Kaiser, head of climate politics at Greenpeace.
"It's already rapidly getting out of coal and
into renewables."
AFP
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