Extract from The Guardian
Labor is forecast to win 44 seats – enough for minority government
with independent support – but bankrupt candidate in Ferny Grove
disrupts plans
Queensland
faces the increasing prospect of a hung parliament as the election
result hinges on the outcome of a seat thrown open by revelations a
bankrupt candidate might have been ineligible to stand.
With the final count still days away, on Tuesday afternoon Labor was forecast to win 44 seats, enough to form minority government with the likely support of independent Peter Wellington.
But its predicted victory in Ferny Grove – where its candidate Mark Furner leads the Liberal National party’s Dale Shuttleworth by 1.6% on preferences with 81.4% of votes counted – could be the subject of legal dispute.
Separately, Pauline Hanson’s hopes of reviving her controversial political career have faded in a seat that is not expected to play a decisive role in the election outcome.
The Liberal National party incumbent, Ian Rickuss, overtook the One Nation founder in Lockyer around midday on Tuesday.
The Palmer United party (PUP) candidate in Ferny Grove, Mark Taverner, stood as an undischarged bankrupt in possible breach of electoral laws, the Courier-Mail reported.
He faces being ruled ineligible by electoral officials on the advice of crown lawyers.
The LNP or Labor could then argue in the court of disputed returns that Taverner’s role – he won 800 votes – affected the outcome, thereby triggering a byelection and possibly postponing the overall election outcome by weeks.
An electoral law expert, Graeme Orr, from the University of Queensland, said this would be “an uphill challenge – but not unarguable and the stakes are high”.
Orr said the law was clear that undischarged bankrupts were not qualified to be candidates but a legal challenge would hinge on whether his role made any difference.
“So whoever comes second in Ferny Grove could try to petition the court of disputed returns for a new election, if the losing margin is less than the number of PUP votes that exhaust [deliver no preference to the LNP or Labor],” Orr said.
“There’s not a definitive legal precedent about this. The high court has said that at elections where preferences are mandatory a disqualified losing candidate is irrelevant.
“But there is an NT case, under first-past-the-post voting, that says where people can only vote ‘1’ you don’t know what would have happened, especially given compulsory voting.
“My instinct is this would be an uphill challenge under [Queensland’s system of] optional preferential voting. But it’s not unarguable. And the stakes are high.”
If Labor lost Ferny Grove to the LNP, the parties would be deadlocked on 43 seats each.
The party forming minority government would then hinge on the support of the two Katter’s Australian party MPs, Robbie Katter and Shane Knuth, and Wellington.
All three have insisted the LNP drop its core plan for privatising state assets – which underpins its election promises – and replace the leadership team around outgoing premier Campbell Newman to have any chance of their support.
The LNP has days to radically rework the platform it took to voters to have a shot at government.
The LNP postponed a party room meeting on future leadership on Tuesday until the poll results were known. The health minister, Lawrence Springborg, and the treasurer, Tim Nicholls, remain in the running to succeed Newman, the Courier-Mail reported.
The opposition environment spokeswoman, Jackie Trad, who revealed Labor’s plans to scrap government funding of Adani’s coal mine railway, is reportedly favoured to be deputy premier if Labor takes office.
Wellington previously supported Labor in a minority government in 1998 and shares its positions on revoking a number of key LNP policies.
The LNP antagonised all three backbenchers during the election campaign, with KAP taking the party to the supreme court over flyers it claimed were misleading voters.
With the final count still days away, on Tuesday afternoon Labor was forecast to win 44 seats, enough to form minority government with the likely support of independent Peter Wellington.
But its predicted victory in Ferny Grove – where its candidate Mark Furner leads the Liberal National party’s Dale Shuttleworth by 1.6% on preferences with 81.4% of votes counted – could be the subject of legal dispute.
Separately, Pauline Hanson’s hopes of reviving her controversial political career have faded in a seat that is not expected to play a decisive role in the election outcome.
The Liberal National party incumbent, Ian Rickuss, overtook the One Nation founder in Lockyer around midday on Tuesday.
The Palmer United party (PUP) candidate in Ferny Grove, Mark Taverner, stood as an undischarged bankrupt in possible breach of electoral laws, the Courier-Mail reported.
He faces being ruled ineligible by electoral officials on the advice of crown lawyers.
The LNP or Labor could then argue in the court of disputed returns that Taverner’s role – he won 800 votes – affected the outcome, thereby triggering a byelection and possibly postponing the overall election outcome by weeks.
An electoral law expert, Graeme Orr, from the University of Queensland, said this would be “an uphill challenge – but not unarguable and the stakes are high”.
Orr said the law was clear that undischarged bankrupts were not qualified to be candidates but a legal challenge would hinge on whether his role made any difference.
“So whoever comes second in Ferny Grove could try to petition the court of disputed returns for a new election, if the losing margin is less than the number of PUP votes that exhaust [deliver no preference to the LNP or Labor],” Orr said.
“There’s not a definitive legal precedent about this. The high court has said that at elections where preferences are mandatory a disqualified losing candidate is irrelevant.
“But there is an NT case, under first-past-the-post voting, that says where people can only vote ‘1’ you don’t know what would have happened, especially given compulsory voting.
“My instinct is this would be an uphill challenge under [Queensland’s system of] optional preferential voting. But it’s not unarguable. And the stakes are high.”
If Labor lost Ferny Grove to the LNP, the parties would be deadlocked on 43 seats each.
The party forming minority government would then hinge on the support of the two Katter’s Australian party MPs, Robbie Katter and Shane Knuth, and Wellington.
All three have insisted the LNP drop its core plan for privatising state assets – which underpins its election promises – and replace the leadership team around outgoing premier Campbell Newman to have any chance of their support.
The LNP has days to radically rework the platform it took to voters to have a shot at government.
The LNP postponed a party room meeting on future leadership on Tuesday until the poll results were known. The health minister, Lawrence Springborg, and the treasurer, Tim Nicholls, remain in the running to succeed Newman, the Courier-Mail reported.
The opposition environment spokeswoman, Jackie Trad, who revealed Labor’s plans to scrap government funding of Adani’s coal mine railway, is reportedly favoured to be deputy premier if Labor takes office.
Wellington previously supported Labor in a minority government in 1998 and shares its positions on revoking a number of key LNP policies.
The LNP antagonised all three backbenchers during the election campaign, with KAP taking the party to the supreme court over flyers it claimed were misleading voters.
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