Media Release.
Curtis Pitt MP.
Shadow Treasurer
31st July, 2013
I have produced this economic update to provide Queenslanders
with a regular update on Queensland’s economy. The Queensland Government
has cancelled a number of economic publications since being elected
including any analysis around the Queensland State Accounts and the
Annual Economic Review.
The Queensland Economic Review by Queensland Treasury has also been cut back from a monthly to a quarterly release. It is important that Queenslanders are informed about how our economy is tracking.
The Queensland unemployment rate in June hit a decade high at
6.4% seasonally adjusted (the highest unemployment rate since October
2003). The trend unemployment rate at 6% also remains above the peak
reached during the global financial crisis.
There are now 13,700 fewer full-time jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis than at March 2012. Queensland’s unemployment rate is now the highest in mainland Australia and is placing upward pressure on the national unemployment rate.
The number of unemployed in Queensland is now at a fifteen year high according to Queensland Treasury Corporation.
The economy has also been slowing since 2011-12 and is forecast
by Queensland Treasury to grow 1% slower this financial year at 3%.
Economic growth is not expected to recover above 2011-12 levels for another two years. Even then in 2015-16 growth will be dependent on the ramp up of LNG exports with private investment still expected to be contracting.
Deloitte Access Economics in their June Quarter Business Outlook conclude that the production phase for LNG will not support many jobs and detail a lower projection for growth this financial year at 2.3%.
The July Commsec State of the State’s report highlighted weakness in Queensland’s housing sector and historically high unemployment.
Dwelling investment in Queensland contracted by 2% in 2012-13
according to Queensland Treasury despite the State Government investing
$2 million in advertising in that year for a ‘Great Start’ grant program
which was funded in part by the removal of the First Home Owners Grant
for existing homes.
BIS Shrapnel in July stated that changes to first home buyer grants is a factor discouraging young people from buying a home.
RP Data’s Property Market indicator to the week ending 28 July details a fall of 16% in the number of new property listings for sale and a fall of 18.8% in the total number of listings over the last 12 months for Brisbane.
Dwelling investment is expected to begin to recover this financial year supported by lower interest rates.
Treasury’s latest projections are for private investment and public final demand (which includes Government investment) to contract for another three years indicating continued weakness for commercial construction.
The increase in the unemployment rate in June completed the weakest year for jobs growth in more than two decades. The last year in which jobs growth was weaker was 1990-1991 when the Australian economy was last in recession.
These figures are available here – http://www.oesr.qld.gov.au/subjects/economy/labour/tables/ employment-growth-unemployment-qld/index.php.
The percentage of people looking for work is in decline.
Queensland’s participation rate or the percentage of people looking for work has fallen from 66.9% seasonally adjusted in March 2012 down to 65.8% in June 2013. If the same proportion of people were looking for work as in March 2012 the unemployment rate would now be nearing 8% seasonally adjusted.
6 August – House Price Indexes Eight Capital Cities June 2013, RBA Board Meeting
7 August – Housing Finance June 2013
8 August – Labour Force July 2013
9 August – RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
12 August – Lending Finance June 2013
13 August – Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment
14 August – Wage Price Index June 2013
15 August – Labour Force Detailed July and Average Weekly Earnings May 2013
20 August – RBA Board Minutes
21 August – Labour Mobility February 2013
28 August – Construction Work Done June 2013
29 August – Private and New and Expected Capex June 2013
30 August – Regional Population Growth 2012
The Queensland Economic Review by Queensland Treasury has also been cut back from a monthly to a quarterly release. It is important that Queenslanders are informed about how our economy is tracking.
Jobs
The Queensland unemployment rate in June hit a decade high at
6.4% seasonally adjusted (the highest unemployment rate since October
2003). The trend unemployment rate at 6% also remains above the peak
reached during the global financial crisis.There are now 13,700 fewer full-time jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis than at March 2012. Queensland’s unemployment rate is now the highest in mainland Australia and is placing upward pressure on the national unemployment rate.
The number of unemployed in Queensland is now at a fifteen year high according to Queensland Treasury Corporation.
Economic Growth
The economy has also been slowing since 2011-12 and is forecast
by Queensland Treasury to grow 1% slower this financial year at 3%.Economic growth is not expected to recover above 2011-12 levels for another two years. Even then in 2015-16 growth will be dependent on the ramp up of LNG exports with private investment still expected to be contracting.
Deloitte Access Economics in their June Quarter Business Outlook conclude that the production phase for LNG will not support many jobs and detail a lower projection for growth this financial year at 2.3%.
The July Commsec State of the State’s report highlighted weakness in Queensland’s housing sector and historically high unemployment.
Housing and Construction
Dwelling investment in Queensland contracted by 2% in 2012-13
according to Queensland Treasury despite the State Government investing
$2 million in advertising in that year for a ‘Great Start’ grant program
which was funded in part by the removal of the First Home Owners Grant
for existing homes.BIS Shrapnel in July stated that changes to first home buyer grants is a factor discouraging young people from buying a home.
RP Data’s Property Market indicator to the week ending 28 July details a fall of 16% in the number of new property listings for sale and a fall of 18.8% in the total number of listings over the last 12 months for Brisbane.
Dwelling investment is expected to begin to recover this financial year supported by lower interest rates.
Treasury’s latest projections are for private investment and public final demand (which includes Government investment) to contract for another three years indicating continued weakness for commercial construction.
Did You Know?
Jobs Growth is the weakest in more than two decades.The increase in the unemployment rate in June completed the weakest year for jobs growth in more than two decades. The last year in which jobs growth was weaker was 1990-1991 when the Australian economy was last in recession.
These figures are available here – http://www.oesr.qld.gov.au/subjects/economy/labour/tables/ employment-growth-unemployment-qld/index.php.
The percentage of people looking for work is in decline.
Queensland’s participation rate or the percentage of people looking for work has fallen from 66.9% seasonally adjusted in March 2012 down to 65.8% in June 2013. If the same proportion of people were looking for work as in March 2012 the unemployment rate would now be nearing 8% seasonally adjusted.
August calendar of economic releases
5 August – Retail Trade June 20136 August – House Price Indexes Eight Capital Cities June 2013, RBA Board Meeting
7 August – Housing Finance June 2013
8 August – Labour Force July 2013
9 August – RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
12 August – Lending Finance June 2013
13 August – Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment
14 August – Wage Price Index June 2013
15 August – Labour Force Detailed July and Average Weekly Earnings May 2013
20 August – RBA Board Minutes
21 August – Labour Mobility February 2013
28 August – Construction Work Done June 2013
29 August – Private and New and Expected Capex June 2013
30 August – Regional Population Growth 2012
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